And so it begins

I’ve been telling anybody who listens that now that Bush has managed to simultaneously over-stretch the US Military beyond the breaking point and put the US in debt up to our eyeballs to China, to expect China to start flexing their muscles towards either Taiwan or the Spratleys, or maybe both.

And so today I read that the Chinese have demonstrated that they can get a sub within torpedo range of a US carrier without being detected. Things like this don’t happen by accident – China is sending us a message. And that message is “we’re the major sea power in this area, not you”. If they were planning to try a political move in the area, this would be a good first move.

5 thoughts on “And so it begins”

  1. Get Tom Clancy on the phone! I’ve got a plot idea for him!

    I would not characterize this incident as a particular escalation, especially after the missile tests in the vicinity of Taiwan and the EP-3 incident. And given China’s relative skill with missile technology, I’m not sure the US Navy really wants to operate its carrier groups in close proximity to China.

    Still, it’s going to cause some worrying in the Pentagon.

  2. If the Chinese attempted to invade Taiwan, the Carrier Battle Group would probably stand off just outside of missile range (or closer if they carry anti-missile defences, and I suspect they do) and send planes to pummel the Chinese invasion fleet. But not if the Chinese subs can sink the carrier first.

    Now that the Chinese navy has proven our war plan isn’t going to work, I expect them to start making non-military moves towards Taiwan.

  3. If I were the Chinese admiral, I’d order my subs to sink the Aegis class frigates first. Those ships are the ones with the weapons and radars for anti-missile defense. Kill ’em and the carriers are sitting ducks.

    I am not sure that our war plan was going to work ever since the introduction of the Silkworm missile. It’s not so much the weapons and tactics as the more basic question: Taiwan is worth how many dead Americans? And how confident is the Chinese leadership of their guess at our answer.

  4. > Now that the Chinese navy has proven our war plan isn’t going to work […]

    I see little basis for this conclusion.

    > I’ve been telling anybody who listens

    Have you managed to convert a disbeliever?

  5. Frank, I don’t think “convert a disbeliever” is a criteria for judging whether I’m right. On September 11th 2001, I said that Bush was going to use the attacks as an excuse to destroy civil liberties in this country, and I was right. When the drums started beating for a war in Iraq, I said this was going to be an unwinnable quagmire which will turn thousands of moderate muslims into American-hating radicals, and I was right. In neither case did I “convert a disbeliever”. That doesn’t alter the fact that I saw it coming and they didn’t.

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