Category: Rant

Once again, I’ve got something to be at in Canada at a certain time. Once again, Vicki gets off work so late that she can only make it if we fly. And this time, as a twist, if we’re not going to fly we have to leave before the afternoon forecasts come out.

My main source of weather information are the surface forecast charts at AOPA on-line. Up until this morning, today was looking like snow showers all day, and Sunday was looking like a terrible mess of rain and snow. But now it’s showing clear for Sunday. And today’s TAF is currently calling for clouds that are just around freezing level, but high enough that I could be comfortable flying under them VFR. But unfortunately, the non-aviation weather sites (weather.com and accuweather.com) don’t quite agree with the rosiness – they’re saying Sunday will be mostly cloudy, a moderate probability of precipitation, and strong gusty winds.

I hate making decisions when it’s murky and uncertain like this. Many is the time I’ve driven home under clear skies saying to myself “I could have flown this”, but a dozen of those are counter balanced by one experience like my trip home from KBAF last month. So I think we’re going to drive again this time. Dammit.

Every time I fly to Canada, I’m impressed with how helpful the flight service center weather briefers are. They don’t just read you the forecast, they tell you what they think is going to happen that isn’t reflected in the forecast, suggest options, and generally act as a partner in your decision making process.

Yesterday morning, when I was trying to figure out if I had a hope in hell of getting home by plane, I used the hotel phone to call the flight service center weather briefers (and because I was using a land-line, it connected me to the most local one in Burlington – there is one 1-800 number for the country, but it connects to different flight service depending where you are). The guy I was talking too was just like the Canadian ones – he helped me make a good mental picture of the weather, discussed alternate routes and what I’d encounter on that route, etc.

Later on, I called flight service again from the Barnes Airport. But I couldn’t find a land-line phone so I ended up using Vicki’s cell phone, which connected me to Buffalo flight service. And I got what I’m used to from weather briefers – a monotone reading of the SIGMET ZULU (icing advisory) that came out early in the morning and hasn’t been adjusted since. I asked for PIREPs (pilot reports) of ice, and he said they didn’t have any – which is annoying because the DTN weather system in the FBO at Barnes had shown me a couple. I asked for information on where the cloud tops would be, and he read me that day’s area forecast. He didn’t offer any interpretation. He didn’t offer an iota of information that I couldn’t have gotten from DUATs or DTN or the AOPA web site.

All the time I’ve been a pilot, I’ve been dealing with Buffalo flight service. And all this time, I’ve wondered what the point is of having flight service stations in this age of internet. Hell, even a voice response phone system could do the job they’re doing. And so I cheered when the government announced they are outsourcing flight service to LockMart. But now it’s hitting me – maybe it’s just Buffalo that sucks. Maybe every other flight service center in the country is staffed by knowledgeable and helpful people with local knowledge and a feel for what you can and can’t get away with in your type of plane in this type of weather in this type of terrain. If that’s the case, I’m pretty sure that outsourcing and privatizing will make it worse. And that’s too bad.

When I planned this flight, I relied as always on the AOPA “Forecast Graphics” (by Meterologix) to give me my best view of what’s coming up in the coming days. But on Friday, their chart for Sunday showed some showers, and for Monday showed a big clear sky over MA and NY, with a front off shore, and then Wilma off on the other side of that. But now, on Sunday, the chart for today shows a big freaking mess, with a similar mess tomorrow and maybe a clear map on Tuesday or Wednesday. Other non-aviation forecasts still say rain for Tuesday and sun on Wednesday, so I’m not so sure about Tuesday’s clear map.

The Aviation Weather Center shows a big ole AIRMET for icing over my entire route, calling for icing in clouds or precipitation anywhere above the freezing level, and a freezing level of 6,000 feet or lower. Of course, the MEA (minimum enroute altitude) for the first section of the flight is 6,000 feet. That spells ICE. And light general aviation planes do not get along with ice.

The flight briefer at the Burlington Automated Flight Service Station suggested I call back at noon to see if they’ve amended the forecasts any, but right now I’m thinking that we take our rental car, drive home, and I’ll come back on Tuesday or Wednesday to fly the plane home.