Comments on: And so it begins http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3 Everything I used to bore people on newsgroups and mailing lists with, now in one inconvenient place. Sun, 11 Jul 2010 16:55:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Paul Tomblin http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3/comment-page-1#comment-63868 Paul Tomblin Wed, 14 Nov 2007 18:07:27 +0000 http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3#comment-63868 Frank, I don't think "convert a disbeliever" is a criteria for judging whether I'm right. On September 11th 2001, I said that Bush was going to use the attacks as an excuse to destroy civil liberties in this country, and I was right. When the drums started beating for a war in Iraq, I said this was going to be an unwinnable quagmire which will turn thousands of moderate muslims into American-hating radicals, and I was right. In neither case did I "convert a disbeliever". That doesn't alter the fact that I saw it coming and they didn't. Frank, I don’t think “convert a disbeliever” is a criteria for judging whether I’m right. On September 11th 2001, I said that Bush was going to use the attacks as an excuse to destroy civil liberties in this country, and I was right. When the drums started beating for a war in Iraq, I said this was going to be an unwinnable quagmire which will turn thousands of moderate muslims into American-hating radicals, and I was right. In neither case did I “convert a disbeliever”. That doesn’t alter the fact that I saw it coming and they didn’t.

]]> By: Frank Ch. Eigler http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3/comment-page-1#comment-63864 Frank Ch. Eigler Wed, 14 Nov 2007 17:50:30 +0000 http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3#comment-63864 > Now that the Chinese navy has proven our war plan isn’t going to work [...] I see little basis for this conclusion. > I’ve been telling anybody who listens Have you managed to convert a disbeliever? > Now that the Chinese navy has proven our war plan isn’t going to work [...]

I see little basis for this conclusion.

> I’ve been telling anybody who listens

Have you managed to convert a disbeliever?

]]> By: Andrew Warinner http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3/comment-page-1#comment-63854 Andrew Warinner Wed, 14 Nov 2007 15:56:09 +0000 http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3#comment-63854 If I were the Chinese admiral, I'd order my subs to sink the Aegis class frigates first. Those ships are the ones with the weapons and radars for anti-missile defense. Kill 'em and the carriers are sitting ducks. I am not sure that our war plan was going to work ever since the introduction of the Silkworm missile. It's not so much the weapons and tactics as the more basic question: Taiwan is worth how many dead Americans? And how confident is the Chinese leadership of their guess at our answer. If I were the Chinese admiral, I’d order my subs to sink the Aegis class frigates first. Those ships are the ones with the weapons and radars for anti-missile defense. Kill ‘em and the carriers are sitting ducks.

I am not sure that our war plan was going to work ever since the introduction of the Silkworm missile. It’s not so much the weapons and tactics as the more basic question: Taiwan is worth how many dead Americans? And how confident is the Chinese leadership of their guess at our answer.

]]> By: Paul Tomblin http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3/comment-page-1#comment-63840 Paul Tomblin Wed, 14 Nov 2007 14:18:23 +0000 http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3#comment-63840 If the Chinese attempted to invade Taiwan, the Carrier Battle Group would probably stand off just outside of missile range (or closer if they carry anti-missile defences, and I suspect they do) and send planes to pummel the Chinese invasion fleet. But not if the Chinese subs can sink the carrier first. Now that the Chinese navy has proven our war plan isn't going to work, I expect them to start making non-military moves towards Taiwan. If the Chinese attempted to invade Taiwan, the Carrier Battle Group would probably stand off just outside of missile range (or closer if they carry anti-missile defences, and I suspect they do) and send planes to pummel the Chinese invasion fleet. But not if the Chinese subs can sink the carrier first.

Now that the Chinese navy has proven our war plan isn’t going to work, I expect them to start making non-military moves towards Taiwan.

]]> By: Andrew Warinner http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3/comment-page-1#comment-63801 Andrew Warinner Wed, 14 Nov 2007 13:45:26 +0000 http://blog.xcski.com/2007/11/14/and-so-it-begins-3#comment-63801 Get Tom Clancy on the phone! I've got a plot idea for him! I would not characterize this incident as a particular escalation, especially after the missile tests in the vicinity of Taiwan and the EP-3 incident. And given China's relative skill with missile technology, I'm not sure the US Navy really wants to operate its carrier groups in close proximity to China. Still, it's going to cause some worrying in the Pentagon. Get Tom Clancy on the phone! I’ve got a plot idea for him!

I would not characterize this incident as a particular escalation, especially after the missile tests in the vicinity of Taiwan and the EP-3 incident. And given China’s relative skill with missile technology, I’m not sure the US Navy really wants to operate its carrier groups in close proximity to China.

Still, it’s going to cause some worrying in the Pentagon.

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